Choosing a VP

When Paul Ryan was named as the Vice-Presidential nominee by Republican Mitt Romney, I was asked about his impact on the Presidential race.  I said many times that the Ryan pick would finally energize the conservative base of the Republican Party who were skeptical of their nominee in Ryan.  Ryan’s youthful enthusiasm coupled with his wonkish policy appeal was just what the Romney campaign needed.  The bland Romney campaign searched for its voice throughout the primary season and through the early stages of the general campaign.  Ryan would be that shot in the arm.  For a short time, the Ryan pick did help pull even with President Barack Obama in the polls.  That momentum seems to have been lost in the last week, as recent reports from the Romney front have stated that Ryan has been muzzled by his Romney’s staffers.  Romney’s team wants Ryan to speak less on his “bread and butter” topic, the budget, and more on how badly Obama has run the country.  Conservative pundits and grassroots supporters wonder why this is so?  Without Ryan’s budget appeal, the Romney campaign was back to where it started, in search of a voice.

How much of a factor should a Vice Presidential pick be for a Presidential ticket? What criteria would you look for when choosing a VP nominee?

 

 

Who Wants To Be Vice President?

Dr. Patrick Cox of the University of Texas at Austin had this to say about former Vice President John Nance Garner regarding the position of Vice President.  “When it comes to commentary about the office of vice president of the United States, no statement is more repeated than John Nance Garner’s observation that the office “is not worth a bucket of warm spit.”  Garner served Franklin D. Roosevelt as Vice President during Roosevelt’s first two terms.  Garner never became President of the United States.  Only 14 Vice Presidents have become President of the United States.  The last being George HW Bush, who served as Vice President under Ronald Reagan (1981-1989).  Bush became President in 1989 and served until 1993.  He lost to Bill Clinton for re-election in 1992.  Clinton’s Vice President, Al Gore, was the last Vice President to unsuccessfully run for President.  Gore lost to then-Governor George W. Bush in 2000.

Why haven’t there been more Vice Presidents who have become President?

 

Vice-Presidential Debate Poll

What Does A Walker Win Mean For Romney?

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s overwhelming victory in June that staved off a recall attempt by Democrats and their allies initially signaled to national Republicans that the Presidential race was up for grabs and that Mitt Romney had a chance to win the state that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.  Romney made an even further push for Wisconsin by naming Representative Paul Ryan from Janesville, Wisconsin as his Vice-Presidential running mate.  However, as the November election draws near, polls still show the Presidential has the lead in Wisconsin over Romney with only a month and a half before Election Day.

Why hasn’t the Romney campaign been able to turn Wisconsin into a Republican state in the Presidential year?  The answer is quite simple.  At first glance, Walker’s win over Democrat Tom Barrett was a result of a galvanized voter base on the Republican side who supported Walker’s tough stances on issues related to unions and collective bargaining.   Recall elections bring out more grassroots voters.  Those voters are emotionally attached to the election and its outcome.

Presidential elections bring out voters who are emotionally attached to an election outcome but also they bring out those voters who are considered to be low information voters.  Low information voters tend to pay attention to elections within a month of the actual voting day.  They have less of a connection to the candidates who are running for office and the issues being discussed by those candidates.  Low information voters may very well be what President Obama needs to get re-elected.

Also, there are more college students and younger voters available to vote in Wisconsin in cold November than there were in warm month of June.  They, too, will play a role in the outcome.  Tea Party Republicans and grassroots organizers must be able turn out in higher numbers than they did in June in order to give Romney a shot at winning Wisconsin.

There is little data correlating a recall election outcome to a Presidential election, in that there have been very few recall elections at the state level in the United States.  Even so, when Arnold Schwarzenegger won in the recall election Gray Davis in 2003, Democrats still voted for John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 for President.  Even with little data available related to the correlation of recall elections to Presidential elections, it is safe to assume that there will be a different bloc headed to the voting booth which could make a Walker victory a moot issue for the Romney campaign.

What are your thoughts?

The Picking of a Vice-Presidential Nominee

 

 

When Paul Ryan was named as the Vice-Presidential nominee by Republican Mitt Romney, I was asked about his impact on the Presidential race.  I said many times that the Ryan pick would finally energize the conservative base of the Republican Party who were skeptical of their nominee in Ryan.  Ryan’s youthful enthusiasm coupled with his wonkish policy appeal was just what the Romney campaign needed.  The bland Romney campaign searched for its voice throughout the primary season and through the early stages of the general campaign.  Ryan would be that shot in the arm.  For a short time, the Ryan pick did help pull even with President Barack Obama in the polls.  That momentum seems to have been lost in the last week, as recent reports from the Romney front have stated that Ryan has been muzzled by his Romney’s staffers.  Romney’s team wants Ryan to speak less on his “bread and butter” topic, the budget, and more on how badly Obama has run the country.  Conservative pundits and grassroots supporters wonder why this is so?  Without Ryan’s budget appeal, the Romney campaign is back to where it started, in search of a voice.  If the purpose of choosing a VP nominee is to galvanize those voters who otherwise would stay home on Election Day, then why stifle any activity from the more energetic individual from the Romney-Ryan ticket?

How much of a factor should a Vice Presidential pick be for a Presidential ticket?  What criteria would you look for when choosing a VP nominee?