Politics and Race

The year was 1990.  US Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) was making another bid for re-election.  His opponent that year was the former Mayor of Charlotte, Harvey Gantt.  This contest would prove to be the biggest challenge to Helms in his electoral career.  With one ad, though, the fortunes for a Gantt victory were quashed.  This ad below introduced the issue of racial quotas into the Helms/Gantt election.  The ad also received plenty of national attention.

Helms would end up winning the election 52.5% to 47.5%.  Helms and Gantt met in a rematch six years later, with Helms garnering 52.6% of the vote to Gantt’s 45.9%.  In today’s political climate, candidates who run for President, US Senate, and House have to identify an ad with the phrase, “I approve this message” as an acknowledgement to the public that they paid for the ad.  This is so because of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002.  Now that candidates have to admit that they are the sponsors of the ad, do you think such an ad as the one above could exist on the air today?  (This ad, by the way, was paid for by the Helms campaign.  The poor quality of the video makes it difficult to see the written disclosure.)

 

Term Limits

The President of the United States is limited to two four-year terms according to the 22nd Amendment.  After two terms, that President can no longer run again.  There are no term limits for members of Congress.  You can stay in office for as long as you are re-elected to that seat.  (Yes, I know.  Members of Congress can also resign, die, or be expelled from the House and Senate.)

Evaluating Campaign Ads — Braley vs. Ernst

This is 2014 and it is an election year.  Every week, I will post ads from the Democratic and Republican candidates for office in those races that are considered to be competitive.  If there are third party candidates running, then I will post their ads as well.  This week’s two ads come from Iowa in the race for retiring US Senator Tom Harkin’s seat.  The Democrat in the race is Congressman Bruce Braley.  The Republican is Joni Ernst, a member of the Iowa State Senate.

Both ads, in this installment, are positive.

**What is Congressman Braley trying to convey in this ad?

**What message is State Senator Ernst trying to make in this ad?

**What are your overall impressions of each ad?

 

The GOP’s Chances in 2014

According to political expert, Nate Silver, the Republican Party has a chance.  Read here.  What do you think?  Remember, a lot can change between now and November 2014, so this is just a guess that you are making.

Politics and Race

The year was 1990.  US Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) was making another bid for re-election.  His opponent that year was the former Mayor of Charlotte, Harvey Gantt.  This contest would prove to be the biggest challenge to Helms in his electoral career.  With one ad, though, the fortunes for a Gantt victory were quashed.  This ad below introduced the issue of racial quotas into the Helms/Gantt election.  The ad also received plenty of national attention.

Helms would end up winning the election 52.5% to 47.5%.  Helms and Gantt met in a rematch six years later, with Helms garnering 52.6% of the vote to Gantt’s 45.9%.  In today’s political climate, candidates who run for President, US Senate, and House have to identify an ad with the phrase, “I approve this message” as an acknowledgement to the public that they paid for the ad.  This is so because of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002.  Now that candidates have to admit that they are the sponsors of the ad, do you think such an ad as the one above could exist on the air today?  (This ad, by the way, was paid for by the Helms campaign.  The poor quality of the video makes it difficult to see the written disclosure.)

 

Predicting the 2014 US Senate

Staying Focused

A lot has happened in the first three months of President Obama’s second term.  Stocks have seen signs of improvement, while unemployment has held steady between 7 and 8 percent.  North Korea has threatened the West and its Asian neighbors.  This past week, President Obama witnessed a failed attempt at gun control in the United States Senate.  He began the week with the bombings at the Boston Marathon.

Recent Senate Retirements/Resignations

At the time of this post, six United States Senators have announced that they will not be candidates for re-election in 2014.  They are

Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Tom Harkin (D-IA), Mike Johanns (R-NE), Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ), Carl Levin (D-MI), and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).  Two other Senators, Jim DeMint (R-SC) and John Kerry (D-MA), resigned.  DeMint becae the head of the conservative think tank, The Heritage Foundation.  Kerry became President Obama’s Secretary of State, replacing Hillary Clinton.

What is your assessment of these recent retirements?  What would cause a Senator or any member of Congress to retire from office in such an abrupt fashion?  With the exception of Johanns, all were multi-term Senators.  Why retire now?

 

What’s In A Commercial? Everything!

The Republican Party during the 2012 campaign season suffered from a gender gap problem.  That is, the differences between men and women in their views regarding the Republicans and their candidates were so great that many women who turned away from the Republican Party and voted for Democratic candidates became the deciding factor in many national and state races.  Exit polls show that nationally Democrats did well with females on the whole, but also with single women at the polls.  Republicans tended to do well with married women, but mostly with white men on Election Day.  However, female voters make up a majority of the voting population, and single women put Democrats over the top in many elections.  For instance, single women helped President Obama defeat Mitt Romney.

There aren’t any exit polls available regarding the United States Senate race in Texas between Ted Cruz (R) and Paul Sadler (D) and how women voted in that election.  Pollsters tend to conduct Election Day surveys on races that they consider to be competitive or worthwhile.  Many did not think that Sadler had a chance in this race, as Texas is a Republican state that leans conservative on many economic and social  issues.  Therefore, pollsters just skipped this race.

Judging by this commercial, however, Cruz was not taking some votes for granted.

Based on the visual content of this commercial, do you think Cruz knew that the Republican Party had a gender gap problem?  Do you believe that the Republican Party has a gender gap issue?