Tag Archives: United States Senate

Predicting the Midterms

The midterm elections are less than 30 days away.  Control of the United States Senate and House of Representatives hangs in the balance.  The Democratic Party controls the United States Senate with 53 members.  The Republican Party has 45.  There are two Independents in the Senate who caucus, or work with, the Democrats.  In order to win the Senate, the Republican Party needs a net gain of six Senate seats this November.  The current makeup of the House of Representatives favors the Republican Party as they 233 seats to the Democrats, 199.  In order for the Democrats to retake the House, they would need a net gain of 17 seats.

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Evaluating the Ads — Political Endorsements

This week’s “Evaluating the Ads” post focuses on two ads from two different United States Senate races in two states.  The common theme in each ad is that each candidate running receives what they hope is an important endorsement that will put them over the top in their respective race.  The first ad is for former United States Senator Scott Brown (R).  He was a Senator from Massachusetts, but now is running in New Hampshire.  His endorsement is from former Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.  The second ad is for Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) who is running in the state of Kentucky.  Her endorsement comes from former President Bill Clinton

Here is the Brown ad.

Here is the Grimes ad.

Which ad do you believe is more effective?  Do you believe that endorsements make a difference?

Evaluating Campaign Ads — Hagan vs. Tillis

In this week’s installment of “Evaluating Campaign Ads”, we travel to North Carolina for a hotly contested United States Senate seat.  The incumbent is Democrat Kay Hagan.  Her opponent is Republican Thom Tillis.  He is North Carolina’s House Speaker.

Senator Hagan’s ad is up first.

Who is this ad aimed at?  Does this ad appeal to you?

Here is Speaker Tillis’s ad.

Is this an effective way of utilizing contrasting data in an ad?

For more insight into the race, here is a recent Elon Poll.

Evaluating Campaign Ads — Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

There is a three person race in Kansas involving US Senator Pat Roberts (R), Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor (D), and businessman Greg Orman (I).  Roberts has been United States Senator since 1997.

The above ad was run in the Republican primary, and not in the upcoming general election.  What is the purpose for such an ad?

The above ad is the first commercial for Taylor.  What is your impression of his opening ad?

Orman, as a third party candidate, is trying to demonstrate that he is different from both party candidates.  Do you believe that his ad makes the case?

Are You Paying Attention?

This November 2014, all 435 seats in the House, 36 seats in the Senate and 36 seats for Governor will be up for election.  In the House of Representatives, 234 seats are held by Republicans.  Democrats hold 199 seats.  Two seats are vacant.  In the United States Senate, 21 of the 36 seats are held by Democrats.  The other 15 are held by Republicans.  For Governor, Republicans find themselves defended 22 seats, while the Democrats will defend 14.  As the days slowly ease their way into the Fall months, men and women of all shapes and sizes will be bombarded by campaign advertisements.  Your attention will be drawn to the elections held in your state.

The question is:  Have you been paying attention to the 2014 midterm election already?  What is your interest level when it comes to elections in your area?