Iowa Straw Poll in Perspective

Now that the final vote total for the Presidential race has given President Obama a 4 point victory rather than a 2 point margin, it might be time to give some perspective on when the Presidential race truly began.  In August 2011, the Republican Party of Iowa held a straw poll where Presidential candidates met with party faithful and gauged where they stood in the state of the first caucus in the nation.  This non-binding vote gave Michele Bachmann the victory and some momentum for her Presidential bid.  The momentum was short-lived.  Here are those results and what happened to those who competed in the straw poll after it was held.

1.  Michele Bachmann — 28.6% (Finished fifth in the Iowa Caucus, dropped her bid for the Presidency soon after, ran for re-election to Congress and won)

2.  Ron Paul–27.7% (Finished third in the Iowa Caucus, lost bid for Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, retired from Congress)

3.  Tim Pawlenty–13.6% (Dropped his bid for the Presidency after the straw poll)

4.  Rick Santorum–9.8% (Won the Iowa Caucus by 8 votes, served as main conservative opponent to Mitt Romney in primaries)

5.  Herman Cain–8.6% (Dropped his bid for Presidency before Iowa Caucus amid allegations of marital infidelity, works as a political commentator)

6.  Rick Perry (write-in)–4.3% (Finished fifth in the Iowa Caucus, dropped his bid for President soon after, current Governor of Texas)

7.  Mitt Romney–3.4% (Finished second in Iowa Caucus, became Republican nominee for President, lost to Barack Obama in November 2012)

8.  Newt Gingrich–2.3% (Finished fourth in the Iowa Caucus, competed strongly in some southern primary states, continues to work as commentator and author)

9.  Jon Huntsman–0.4% (Finished seventh in the Iowa Caucus, dropped bid after New Hampshire primary)

10.  Thaddeus McCotter–0.2% (Dropped his bid for nomination before Iowa Caucus; dropped his bid for re-election to Congress after petition foul up)

Source:  Iowa Caucus

 

Looking Ahead to 2016

It’s not even the end of 2012 and names are already being thrown about for the 2016 Presidential contest.  President Barack Obama is term-limited, so that leaves the Democratic nomination wide open.  Governor Mitt Romney will more than likely not be running for the Republican nomination in 2016.  Since neither 2012 candidate is eligible nor likely to run, both political parties will have their work cut out for them in deciding who their Presidential nominees will be.  Voters, of course, will be the ultimate deciding factor in choosing the party nominees.  On the Democratic side, Vice President Joe Biden, newly elected US Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are most frequently mentioned.  Outgoing Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and current Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper are also discussed as possible candidates for President.  The Republican side, after two straight Presidential defeats, also has a strong list of possible candidates.  Among them are former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey.  Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney’s chief conservative opponent in 2012, has also made overtures about running for President in 2016.  Former US Senator Scott Brown, who lost to Elizabeth Warren in his re-election bid this November, is also seen as a dark horse candidate for the White House.  What should we be watching out for when trying to determine who will run for President in 2016?  Pay attention to those who visit Iowa and New Hampshire in 2013.  Those two states conduct the first caucuses and primaries respectively.  Historically, Iowa and New Hampshire help narrow the field of candidates from the serious and not-so-serious.  Since they are first, it is understandable as to why those with Presidential aspirations visit them.  With that in mind, who do you think will run for President in 2016?