Push Polling

I posted this one back in 2012.

By now, many poll results have been reported to the public by the media.  Scientific polls were conducted to get those poll results.  Whether you are a Barack Obama, Mitt Romney or third party candidate supporter, you can rest assured that those polls results were compiled in a legitimate manner.  When you see polling companies such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew and the like, you know that the poll is credible.  Credibility is something that cannot be said for the push poll.

A push poll is not a real poll.  In fact, those who conduct a push poll are not concerned about the data gleaned from their surveys.  A push poll is conducted in an automated fashion over the phone.  The goal of a push poll is to put a rumor or false inference in the mind of the person who answered the phone.  It designed to sway voters from one candidate to another.  To the untrained voter, they may believe the push poll is a scientific poll.  However, scientific polls usually do not ask questions such as, “How can someone who is Mormon be President if he does not believe in Jesus Christ?” or “If you knew that your candidate for President fathered an illegitimate black child, would you still vote for him for President?”  The first question is being used in Ohio currently by a group that is rumored to support President Obama.  It is designed to harm the Romney campaign.  The second question was asked of primary voters in South Carolina in 2000 regarding John McCain and his non-Caucasian daughter.  The daughter was not black, nor was she illegitimate.  She just happened to be adopted from Bangladesh.  Supporters of then-Governor George W. Bush were have said to be the source of the McCain question.  Those who engage in push polling typically do not leave their calling card as to the identification of the push poll’s source.  They are negative in nature and are designed to destroy political campaigns.  The voter who answers the phone is left questioning whether or not what they heard over phone was valid or not.  Push polls are not valid in any shape or form.  This election season, as the electoral finish line approaches, beware of the push poll and its consequences.

(2012 Question)  What are your thoughts regarding push polls?  (2015 Question)  Have you ever been push polled?  I have…actually twice.  Once in 2010 and another was in 2014.  Both were for races for Illinois Governor.

The Influence of Polls

What Title Do You Look For In A Presidential Candidate?

Presidential Approval Ratings

 

 

 

F rom the Real Clear Politics website, here are the latest polling results in relation to President Obama’s job approval.  Under the “Sample” heading, ‘LV’ means ‘Likely Voters’, ‘RV’ means ‘Registered Voters’, and ‘A’ means ‘Adults’.  Do you foresee his numbers going up any time soon?  For more polling data, please visit the RCP site.  You can also click on the chart for a larger view of the data.

Polling Problems

Polling, the act of measuring public opinion, is not a flawless way of measuring said opinion.  There is always error found in a scientifically conducted poll.  We recognize this as the margin of error.  But what about errors that you can find within the poll’s questions or responses?  Below are three polls that have errors/potential errors within each.  Once you find the error(s), ask yourself, what adjustments could be made to eliminate those errors?

I.  If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for?

Person A (Democrat) 52%
Person B (Republican) 48%

II.  If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Person A (Democrat) 35%
Person B (Republican) 45%
Person C (Independent) 20%
Number of People Polled:  1000 Adults
Poll Conducted via landline phone

III.  If the election for Senator were held today, who would you vote for?

Person A (Democrat) 45%
Person B (Republican) 35%
Person C (Independent) 20%
Number of People Polled:  1000 Registered Voters
Margin of Error:  +/- 3%

 

 

The Power of the Invisible Primary

It is only 2013 and many Democratic and Republican Party leaders are already testing the waters for a Presidential run in 2016.  Many of those who enter into the Presidential fray will drop out before they even officially run.  The others, who do make it to the 2016 primaries and caucuses, can thank the “invisible primary” for their ability to compete in an electoral format.  The invisible primary or the “money primary” does not involve any voting at the ballot box.  Candidates, however, who want to be considered as viable candidates must do well in the invisible primary.

In the months and years before the first votes are cast, candidates try to woo financial backers into supporting their campaigns.  Monetary contributions separate potential candidates from pretenders.  With more financial backing, a candidate can make the early campaign rounds in states like Iowa and New Hampshire.  Those two states hold the first caucus and first primary respectively every Presidential election season.

The added campaign stops then increases the public’s awareness about that candidate.  The increased public awareness subsequently inflates the candidate’s poll numbers.  Positive polling results also separates the top-tier from the second-tier.  This increases the candidate’s chances on Election Day.

Paul Laxalt

The invisible primary can also eliminate good candidates who may have great ideas, but lack the prowess to raise large amounts of money.  An example of this happening would be the failed 1988 Presidential run of US Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV).  Considered to be an heir to the Ronald Reagan legacy, Laxalt, who was dubbed, “The First Friend”, entered his name into the Presidential race too late, and dropped his bid in 1987 due to a lackluster four months of fundraising.

What are your thoughts on the invisible primary? Do you see any positives or negatives with the invisible primary?

2012 Exit Polls

Exit polls are conducted after a person has already voted.  Individuals are surveyed and their answers are then tallied by the pollster who conducted the survey.  The results of those surveys are then compiled and then presented to the public as to how people voted on Election Day.  From these numbers, you can identify the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate’s support and of their respective parties.

Take a look at this example from the 2012 Presidential Election.  Where were President Obama’s and Governor Romney’s main areas of support?  Why would those groups support their candidate in the way that they did?

Push Polling En Vogue in South Carolina

During last year’s election cycle, we all were inundated by public opinion polls that supposedly gauged how people were going to vote for President, Senate, House, and Governor.  In each of these cases, scientific polls were conducted to get those poll results. When you see polling companies such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew and the like, you know that the poll is credible.  You may not agree with their findings, but what you do get at the very least is a scientific method used to gather information.  The practice of push polling, however, is not credible and certainly not scientific.

A push poll is not a real poll.  In fact, those who conduct a push poll are not concerned about the data gleaned from their surveys.  A push poll is conducted in an automated fashion over the phone.  The goal of a push poll is to put a rumor or false inference in the mind of the person who answered the phone.  It designed to sway voters from one candidate to another.  To the untrained voter, they may believe the push poll is a scientific poll.  However, scientific polls usually do not ask questions such as, “Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain…if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?”

(Photo:  AP Photo)

This question was asked of primary voters in South Carolina in 2000 regarding then-Presidential candidate John McCain and his non-Caucasian daughter.  The daughter was not black, nor was she illegitimate.  She just happened to be adopted from Bangladesh.  Using such racially coded language could stir up emotions in voters from a state such as South Carolina.

Supporters of then-Governor George W. Bush were have said to be the source of the McCain question.  Those who engage in push polling typically do not leave their calling card as to the identification of the push poll’s source.  They are negative in nature and are designed to destroy political campaigns.  The voter who answers the phone is left questioning the validity of what they just heard.  Push polls are not valid in any shape or form.

With a special election taking place this March, the voters in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District are now receiving push poll phone calls regarding a few of the candidates.  This Real Clear Politics story elaborates a little more on push polling in the 1st Congressional District and on the practice of push polling itself.  For a list of the candidates running for the seat once held by newly appointed US Senator Tim Scott (R), look no further than this site.

After reading the RCP story, what are your thoughts in regards to push polls?

Beware of the Push Poll

By now, many poll results have been reported to the public by the media.  Scientific polls were conducted to get those poll results.  Whether you are a Barack Obama, Mitt Romney or third party candidate supporter, you can rest assured that those polls results were compiled in a legitimate manner.  When you see polling companies such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew and the like, you know that the poll is credible.  Credibility is something that cannot be said for the push poll.

A push poll is not a real poll.  In fact, those who conduct a push poll are not concerned about the data gleaned from their surveys.  A push poll is conducted in an automated fashion over the phone.  The goal of a push poll is to put a rumor or false inference in the mind of the person who answered the phone.  It designed to sway voters from one candidate to another.  To the untrained voter, they may believe the push poll is a scientific poll.  However, scientific polls usually do not ask questions such as, “How can someone who is Mormon be President if he does not believe in Jesus Christ?” or “If you knew that your candidate for President fathered an illegitimate black child, would you still vote for him for President?”  The first question is being used in Ohio currently by a group that is rumored to support President Obama.  It is designed to harm the Romney campaign.  The second question was asked of primary voters in South Carolina in 2000 regarding John McCain and his non-Caucasian daughter.  The daughter was not black, nor was she illegitimate.  She just happened to be adopted from Bangladesh.  Supporters of then-Governor George W. Bush were have said to be the source of the McCain question.  Those who engage in push polling typically do not leave their calling card as to the identification of the push poll’s source.  They are negative in nature and are designed to destroy political campaigns.  The voter who answers the phone is left questioning whether or not what they heard over phone was valid or not.  Push polls are not valid in any shape or form.  This election season, as the electoral finish line approaches, beware of the push poll and its consequences.

What are your thoughts regarding push polls?

Give Me A Way Out

I can remember visiting my grandparents in Parlin, New Jersey for several holidays and occasions each year.  My grandpa and I would sit and watch a television show called, “The Uncle Floyd Show” which was a New Jersey institution in the form of a low-budget comedy-variety program.  The show bounced around, year after year, from low frequency channel to low budget cable channel so many times that my grandpa would tease me and say that “Uncle Floyd” was on “Channel 52 and a Half”.  Inevitably, we would talk up some baseball stories, mainly focusing on who should and shouldn’t be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  We wouldn’t get into stats too often, but I would question him about the merits of certain ballplayers, like Steve Garvey, for instance, who I thought should be in Hall and who my grandpa thought should not.  Our selections to the Hall were based on straight up and down votes.  Either he’s allowed induction into the Hall or he’s not.

Voting for someone into the Baseball Hall of Fame is not the same as voting for the next President of the United States yet many polling companies typically give the respondent two candidates to choose from.  Either you vote for the Democrat or you vote for the Republican.  There is little middle ground.  In the United States, voters are more likely to consider themselves, Independent, than Democrat or Republican.  Furthermore, there are extremes to both the left and to the right of our two major parties.  You have your Greens, Socialists and the newly formed Justice Party to the left of the Democrats and the Libertarians and Constitution Party supporter to the right of the Republicans.  However, when asked to choose a Presidential preference, many voters are left with one or the other.  Is it going to be Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?  I know we get a chance to say, “I Don’t Know” or “Unsure” or “Other”, but I want my “other” choice to be a specific name.  When I buy a drink from the store, I have a choice of Coke, Pepsi, and other cola brands, such as RC.  The labels never read, “Other Cola”.

Why not list, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, Virgil Goode, or Rocky Anderson as polling choices?  In Colorado, you could add the name of Roseanne Barr, who is also a third-party candidate for President in some states.  How about adding the Prohibition Party candidate to a poll in Louisiana, the only state where the party qualified this year?

Polls should list all candidates running for President, and for other offices, where applicable.  If it’s a nationwide poll, then all candidates who are running if enough states to qualify for the Electoral College should be listed.   State by state Presidential polls should include all qualified candidates from that state in the survey.  Polls for Gubernatorial, Senate, and House races should also not leave third party or Independent candidates off of their questionnaires.  It is the honest way to go to promote electoral choice in the United States.  Polling companies that offer multiple survey choices only inform the voter more about who is running for a particular office.  There is no harm in doing so.

My grandpa passed away a few years ago.  I miss those baseball discussions with him.  Looking back, it seems that our final decisions on who should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame were pretty rigid.  Making a choice for President in a poll, however, should not have to be as rigid.

What are your thoughts?  Leave a comment below.