Looking Ahead to 2016

It’s not even the end of 2012 and names are already being thrown about for the 2016 Presidential contest.  President Barack Obama is term-limited, so that leaves the Democratic nomination wide open.  Governor Mitt Romney will more than likely not be running for the Republican nomination in 2016.  Since neither 2012 candidate is eligible nor likely to run, both political parties will have their work cut out for them in deciding who their Presidential nominees will be.  Voters, of course, will be the ultimate deciding factor in choosing the party nominees.  On the Democratic side, Vice President Joe Biden, newly elected US Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are most frequently mentioned.  Outgoing Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and current Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper are also discussed as possible candidates for President.  The Republican side, after two straight Presidential defeats, also has a strong list of possible candidates.  Among them are former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey.  Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney’s chief conservative opponent in 2012, has also made overtures about running for President in 2016.  Former US Senator Scott Brown, who lost to Elizabeth Warren in his re-election bid this November, is also seen as a dark horse candidate for the White House.  What should we be watching out for when trying to determine who will run for President in 2016?  Pay attention to those who visit Iowa and New Hampshire in 2013.  Those two states conduct the first caucuses and primaries respectively.  Historically, Iowa and New Hampshire help narrow the field of candidates from the serious and not-so-serious.  Since they are first, it is understandable as to why those with Presidential aspirations visit them.  With that in mind, who do you think will run for President in 2016?

2012 Presidential Election Results

Here are the 2012 Presidential Election Results (Popular Vote) as of 12:09pm on Wednesday, November 7.  Included in the data are the popular vote totals from the 2008 Presidential Election.  The 2008 results are listed in parentheses.

2012 Presidential Election

Barack Obama (D) 59,725,608 (69,498,215)

Mitt Romney (R) 57,098,650 (59,948,240)

Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 1,139,562 (523,713)

Jill Stein (Green) 396,684 (161,680)

Virgil Goode (Constitution) 108,195 (199,437)

Roseanne Barr (Peace and Freedom) 48,797 (116,385)*

Rocky Anderson (Justice) 34,521 (N/A)**

Others 177,996 (323,984)

Vote totals for both the Democrats and Republicans were down from 2008. Libertarian and Green Party candidates saw an increase in their respective party’s vote totals from 2008.  The Constitution Party also saw a decrease from 2008.

*Ralph Nader ran as the Peace and Freedom Party candidate in 2008 in California and Iowa.  However, his status on many ballots was listed as “Independent”.

**The Justice Party did not run a candidate in 2008.

What are your thoughts on these totals?

Who Will Win Ohio?

Obama vs. Romney — Part 3

Florida Presidential Ballot

From the informative website, Ballot Access News, comes this ballot from Palm Beach County, Florida.  The ballot, for the purposes of this website, contains all of the candidates who qualified for President in the state of Florida.  As mentioned before on this blog, ballot access laws in the 50 states differ from state to state.  In order to qualify as a candidate for President in Florida, a candidate must belong to a party that is recognized by the state.  The qualification for candidacy is less stringent than in other states.  Oklahoma for example with the toughest ballot access laws in the country, will only have two candidates for President on the ballot.

Here is the list of Presidential candidates and their Vice-Presidential selections as they are listed on the ballot in Florida.

Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan–Republican

Barack Obama/Joe Biden–Democrat

Thomas Robert Stevens/Alden Link–Objectivist

Gary Johnson/James P. Gray–Libertarian

Virgil H.  Goode Jr./James N. Clymer–Constitution

Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala–Green

Andre Barnett/Kenneth Cross–Reform

Stewart Alexander/Alex Mendoza–Socialist

Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio–Party for Socialism and Liberation

Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheehan–Peace and Freedom Party

Tom Hoefling/Jonathan D. Ellis–American Independent Party

Ross C. “Rocky” Anderson/Luis J. Rodriquez–Justice Party

Should there be a limit to how many Presidential candidates qualify for a ballot?  Is this ballot an example of how democracy is supposed to work in the United States by being open to many who desire to run for office?

 

 

The Second Presidential Debate

Beware of the Push Poll

By now, many poll results have been reported to the public by the media.  Scientific polls were conducted to get those poll results.  Whether you are a Barack Obama, Mitt Romney or third party candidate supporter, you can rest assured that those polls results were compiled in a legitimate manner.  When you see polling companies such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew and the like, you know that the poll is credible.  Credibility is something that cannot be said for the push poll.

A push poll is not a real poll.  In fact, those who conduct a push poll are not concerned about the data gleaned from their surveys.  A push poll is conducted in an automated fashion over the phone.  The goal of a push poll is to put a rumor or false inference in the mind of the person who answered the phone.  It designed to sway voters from one candidate to another.  To the untrained voter, they may believe the push poll is a scientific poll.  However, scientific polls usually do not ask questions such as, “How can someone who is Mormon be President if he does not believe in Jesus Christ?” or “If you knew that your candidate for President fathered an illegitimate black child, would you still vote for him for President?”  The first question is being used in Ohio currently by a group that is rumored to support President Obama.  It is designed to harm the Romney campaign.  The second question was asked of primary voters in South Carolina in 2000 regarding John McCain and his non-Caucasian daughter.  The daughter was not black, nor was she illegitimate.  She just happened to be adopted from Bangladesh.  Supporters of then-Governor George W. Bush were have said to be the source of the McCain question.  Those who engage in push polling typically do not leave their calling card as to the identification of the push poll’s source.  They are negative in nature and are designed to destroy political campaigns.  The voter who answers the phone is left questioning whether or not what they heard over phone was valid or not.  Push polls are not valid in any shape or form.  This election season, as the electoral finish line approaches, beware of the push poll and its consequences.

What are your thoughts regarding push polls?

Watching the Debates

The Responsible Party Model

According to the responsible party model, political parties have distinct platforms which they should carry out when their members get elected.  To accept this model, you must believe that they are clear ideological and philosophical differences between the parties.  Those distinct parties would accept responsibility related to the government’s performance while they are in charge.  With the Presidential debates upon the American people, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will attempt to draw distinctions between each other.  Once elected, they, as members of their respective parties, would then take responsibility for the performance of government.

Do you believe that parties adhere to the responsible party model?  Do you believe there are clear distinctions between the parties and the Presidential candidates?  Do you follow the mantra of Huey P. Long, the brash Louisiana politician who had a disdain for the two-party system? His comments can be found in the video below.  What are your thoughts?

Give Me A Way Out

I can remember visiting my grandparents in Parlin, New Jersey for several holidays and occasions each year.  My grandpa and I would sit and watch a television show called, “The Uncle Floyd Show” which was a New Jersey institution in the form of a low-budget comedy-variety program.  The show bounced around, year after year, from low frequency channel to low budget cable channel so many times that my grandpa would tease me and say that “Uncle Floyd” was on “Channel 52 and a Half”.  Inevitably, we would talk up some baseball stories, mainly focusing on who should and shouldn’t be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.  We wouldn’t get into stats too often, but I would question him about the merits of certain ballplayers, like Steve Garvey, for instance, who I thought should be in Hall and who my grandpa thought should not.  Our selections to the Hall were based on straight up and down votes.  Either he’s allowed induction into the Hall or he’s not.

Voting for someone into the Baseball Hall of Fame is not the same as voting for the next President of the United States yet many polling companies typically give the respondent two candidates to choose from.  Either you vote for the Democrat or you vote for the Republican.  There is little middle ground.  In the United States, voters are more likely to consider themselves, Independent, than Democrat or Republican.  Furthermore, there are extremes to both the left and to the right of our two major parties.  You have your Greens, Socialists and the newly formed Justice Party to the left of the Democrats and the Libertarians and Constitution Party supporter to the right of the Republicans.  However, when asked to choose a Presidential preference, many voters are left with one or the other.  Is it going to be Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?  I know we get a chance to say, “I Don’t Know” or “Unsure” or “Other”, but I want my “other” choice to be a specific name.  When I buy a drink from the store, I have a choice of Coke, Pepsi, and other cola brands, such as RC.  The labels never read, “Other Cola”.

Why not list, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, Virgil Goode, or Rocky Anderson as polling choices?  In Colorado, you could add the name of Roseanne Barr, who is also a third-party candidate for President in some states.  How about adding the Prohibition Party candidate to a poll in Louisiana, the only state where the party qualified this year?

Polls should list all candidates running for President, and for other offices, where applicable.  If it’s a nationwide poll, then all candidates who are running if enough states to qualify for the Electoral College should be listed.   State by state Presidential polls should include all qualified candidates from that state in the survey.  Polls for Gubernatorial, Senate, and House races should also not leave third party or Independent candidates off of their questionnaires.  It is the honest way to go to promote electoral choice in the United States.  Polling companies that offer multiple survey choices only inform the voter more about who is running for a particular office.  There is no harm in doing so.

My grandpa passed away a few years ago.  I miss those baseball discussions with him.  Looking back, it seems that our final decisions on who should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame were pretty rigid.  Making a choice for President in a poll, however, should not have to be as rigid.

What are your thoughts?  Leave a comment below.