In this week’s installment of “Evaluating the Ads”, we’ll take a look at two ads from the race for Governor of Illinois. The incumbent, Democrat Pat Quinn is looking for a second full term of office. His opponent, Republican Bruce Rauner, is trying to unseat Quinn. In both of the ads that you are about to see, Quinn and Rauner present both a negative and a positive message in 30 seconds.
There is a lot going on here in this week’s “Evaluating the Ads” post. For some perspective on the Congressional race in the 12th District of Illinois between first term Congressman Bill Enyart (D) and Illinois State Representative Mike Bost (R), please watch this video on an outburst Rep. Bost made in 2012 regarding the rules set forth by Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan.
Fast forward to 2014. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running this ad targeting Bost.
Here is the response by Bost.
Please notice the difference in the two ads. An ad that was paid for by the candidate’s team has to say, “I approve this message.” This was a provision from the Bipartisan Campaign Act (McCain-Feingold) of 2002. Any organization outside of a political campaign must declare that they are not affiliated with a campaign team. Therefore, the ad that was run against Bost was not run by the Enyart campaign. Bost’s ad was paid for by the Bost campaign.
If you were a voter in this race, how would you rate each ad? Do you believe the DCCC’s ad is effective? Do you believe Bost’s response was a strong one?
It is an election year. As mentioned in a previous post, the House and Senate are up for grabs. Below is a graph from the United States Census website. (The address for the site is located at the bottom of the graph.)
What you have are five different lines representing five age groups. You will also see that black and white voters are separated from each other. If any of the age group lines rises above the “0” demarcation, then that means that there was a net positive percentage for black voters in a particular age group for that one Congressional election year. For instance, 1986 showed a net positive for black voters over white voters in the 18-24 age group. The same held true in 2002 and 2010. With some exceptions, all age groups saw a higher net percentage for white voters in most Congressional years.
Since this is a midterm election, what do you suspect the trend to be in 2014 in regards to black and white voters? Will the net percentages stay the same or will they be different this time around? Remember, the graph only looks at the years where a Presidential election did not occur.