What Will Happen in 2014?

It is an election year.  As mentioned in a previous post, the House and Senate are up for grabs.  Below is a graph from the United States Census website.  (The address for the site is located at the bottom of the graph.)

What you have are five different lines representing five age groups.  You will also see that black and white voters are separated from each other.  If any of the age group lines rises above the “0” demarcation, then that means that there was a net positive percentage for black voters in a particular age group for that one Congressional election year.  For instance, 1986 showed a net positive for black voters over white voters in the 18-24 age group.  The same held true in 2002 and 2010.  With some exceptions, all age groups saw a higher net percentage for white voters in most Congressional years.

Since this is a midterm election, what do you suspect the trend to be in 2014 in regards to black and white voters?  Will the net percentages stay the same or will they be different this time around?  Remember, the graph only looks at the years where a Presidential election did not occur.

The Declaration of Independence

Here is an excerpt from the Declaration of Independence (1776):

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

In your opinion, what is the most important line in this portion of the Declaration?

Evaluating Campaign Ads — Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

There is a three person race in Kansas involving US Senator Pat Roberts (R), Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor (D), and businessman Greg Orman (I).  Roberts has been United States Senator since 1997.

The above ad was run in the Republican primary, and not in the upcoming general election.  What is the purpose for such an ad?

The above ad is the first commercial for Taylor.  What is your impression of his opening ad?

Orman, as a third party candidate, is trying to demonstrate that he is different from both party candidates.  Do you believe that his ad makes the case?

The Nation’s Most Pressing Issue

Evaluating Campaign Ads – Pryor vs. Cotton

In this week’s installment of “Evaluating Campaign Ads”, we’ll take a look at two ads that have been running in Arkansas.  Senator Mark Pryor (D) is up for re-election and his opponent is Congressman Tom Cotton (R).  Both ads shown below are what might be called “negative” or “contrast” ads.

The first ad is from Representative Cotton.

The following ad is from Senator Pryor.

What are your thoughts on these two ads?  What clues do you see that identify these ads as “negative” or “contrast”?

 

The 2016 Presidential Election

What are your thoughts on this poll?  Who do you think the nominees for President will be in 2016?

The 22nd Amendment

In 1944, Thomas Dewey, the Republican nominee for President, has this to say about a multi-term President:

“Four terms, or sixteen years, is the most dangerous threat to our freedom ever proposed.” (1)

Dewey was referring to Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt’s bid for a fourth term for President.  FDR ended up winning in ’44, but he died early in the first year of that term.  The support that Dewey and others gave to term limiting the President did not go unnoticed.  Limiting the President to two terms passed both houses of Congress in 1947.  In 1951, the 22nd Amendment was ratified by enough states for its official passage.  Since FDR, no President (with the exception of Harry Truman who was exempt from the Amendment) has been able to serve for more than two terms.

What do you think?  Should there be term limits on a President?  

— (1) For more information about the Election of 1944, you can find it here.

Are You Paying Attention?

This November 2014, all 435 seats in the House, 36 seats in the Senate and 36 seats for Governor will be up for election.  In the House of Representatives, 234 seats are held by Republicans.  Democrats hold 199 seats.  Two seats are vacant.  In the United States Senate, 21 of the 36 seats are held by Democrats.  The other 15 are held by Republicans.  For Governor, Republicans find themselves defended 22 seats, while the Democrats will defend 14.  As the days slowly ease their way into the Fall months, men and women of all shapes and sizes will be bombarded by campaign advertisements.  Your attention will be drawn to the elections held in your state.

The question is:  Have you been paying attention to the 2014 midterm election already?  What is your interest level when it comes to elections in your area?

 

 

 

Where Do You Get Your News From?

The statistic below identifies the number of households that have CNN/Headline News, Fox News Channel, and MSNBC (as of August 2013).

CNN/HLN: 99.292 million households

FNC: 97.186 million households

MSNBC: 94.519 million households

More information about these stats that can be found at Zap2it’s TV By The Numbers.

The statistic is worth noting, but are you one of those people who gets his/her news from CNN/HLN, FNC, or MSNBC?  If so, which one do you watch and why?  If not, where do you get your news from?

Evaluating Campaign Ads — Braley vs. Ernst

This is 2014 and it is an election year.  Every week, I will post ads from the Democratic and Republican candidates for office in those races that are considered to be competitive.  If there are third party candidates running, then I will post their ads as well.  This week’s two ads come from Iowa in the race for retiring US Senator Tom Harkin’s seat.  The Democrat in the race is Congressman Bruce Braley.  The Republican is Joni Ernst, a member of the Iowa State Senate.

Both ads, in this installment, are positive.

**What is Congressman Braley trying to convey in this ad?

**What message is State Senator Ernst trying to make in this ad?

**What are your overall impressions of each ad?